½â´ð£º
½â£º£¨1£©¢ÙͼÖÐÏÔʾÐÄѪ¹Ü¼²²¡ËÀÍöÂʵIJîÒì±íÏÖÔÚ£º²»Í¬¹ú¼ÒËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂʲ»Í¬£»ÄÐÐÔËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂʸßÓÚÅ®ÐԵȣ®
¢Ú±¾ÌâÊôÓÚ¿ª·ÅÌ⣬̽¾¿¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿ÓëÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡ËÀÍöÂʹØϵµÄ¼ÙÉè¿ÉÒÔΪ£º¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿Ô½¸ßµÄÈËȺËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊÔ½¸ß£»»ò¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿Ô½¸ßµÄÈËȺËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊÔ½µÍ£»»ò¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿µÄ¶àÉÙÓëËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊÎ޹أ®
£¨2£©¢Ùµ÷²éʱÈËÀàÒÅ´«²¡Ê±£¬×îºÃѡȡȺÌåÖз¢²¡ÂÊÏà¶Ô½Ï¸ßµÄµ¥»ùÒòÒÅ´«²¡½øÐе÷²é£¬ÈçºìÂÌɫä¡¢°×»¯²¡¡¢²¢Ö¸¡¢¿¹vbØþÙͲ¡µÈ£®
¢ÚÎÒ¹úÈËȺÖУ¬ºìÂÌɫäÖÐÄÐÐÔ·¢²¡ÂÊΪ7%£¬Å®ÐÔ·¢²¡ÂÊΪ0.5%£¬µ«ÊµÑéС×éµÄµ÷²é½á¹ûÓëÉÏÊöÊý¾ÝÏà²î½Ï´ó£¬ÆäÔÒòÊǵ÷²éµÄÊýÄ¿Ì«ÉÙ£¬²»·ûºÏͳ¼ÆѧÔÀí£®Áµ¶ÐÍϸ°ûƶѪ֢Êdz£È¾É«ÌåÒþÐÔÒÅ´«²¡£¨ÓÃA¡¢a±íʾ£©£¬É«Ã¤ÊÇ°éXȾɫÌåÒþÐÔÒÅ´«²¡£¨ÓÃB¡¢b±íʾ£©£®Ä³Ò»¼ÒÍ¥£¬¸¸Ç×»¼ºìÂÌɫ䣨A_X
bY£©£¬Ä¸Ç×Õý³££¨A_X
BX
_£©£¬ËûÃÇÉúÁËÒ»¸ö»¼Áµ¶ÐÍϸ°ûƶѪ֢µÄÅ®¶ù£¨aaX
BX
b£©£¬Ôò¸Ã·ò¸¾µÄ»ùÒòÐÍΪAaX
bY¡ÁAaX
BX
_£¬ÔòËûÃǵÄÁíÒ»¸ö±íÏÖÕý³£Å®¶ùµÄ»ùÒòÐͼ°±ÈÀýΪ
AAX
BX
b»ò
AaX
BX
b£®Ò»¸öÆ丸»¼ºìÂÌɫ䣨X
bY£©¡¢Æäĸ»¼Áµ¶ÐÍϸ°ûƶѪ֢£¨aa£©µÄÕý³£ÄÐ×ӵĻùÒòÐÍΪAaX
BY£®Ëý£¨
AAX
BX
b»ò
AaX
BX
b£©ºÍËû£¨AaX
BY£©»éÅ䣬ÉúÓý»¼Áµ¶ÐÍϸ°ûƶѪ֢º¢×ӵĸÅÂÊΪ
¡Á=£¬ÉúÓý»¼É«Ã¤º¢×ӵĸÅÂÊΪ
£¬ËùÒÔËûÃÇÉúÓý»¼²¡×ÓÅ®£¨Ö»»¼Áµ¶ÐÍϸ°ûƶѪ֢+Ö»»¼É«Ã¤+Á½ÖÖ²¡¶¼»¼£©µÄ¼¸ÂÊÊÇ
¡Á(1-)+(1-)¡Á+¡Á=£®
¹Ê´ð°¸Îª£º
£¨1£©¢Ù²»Í¬¹ú¼ÒËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂʲ»Í¬£¨»òËĸö¹ú¼ÒÖжíÂÞ˹ÈËËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊ×î¸ß¡¢·¨¹úÈËËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊ×îµÍ£©£»ÄÐÐÔËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂʸßÓÚÅ®ÐԵȣ®
¢Ú¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿Ô½¸ßµÄÈËȺËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊÔ½¸ß£»»ò¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿Ô½¸ßµÄÈËȺËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊÔ½µÍ£»»ò¾Æ¾«ÉãÈëÁ¿µÄ¶àÉÙÓëËÀÓÚÐÄѪ¹Ü²¡µÄ±ÈÂÊÎ޹أ®
£¨2£©¢Ùµ¥»ùÒò
¢Úµ÷²éµÄÊýÄ¿Ì«ÉÙ£¬²»·ûºÏͳ¼ÆѧÔÀí AAX
BX
b»òAaX
BX
b