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Experts debunk Maya doomsday（末日） predictions -- But that hasn't stopped books, movies from cashing in.
If the ancient Maya and filmmaker Roland Emmerich are correct, the apocalypse（大灾变） will happen very fast, maybe quicker than his new 2½-hour movie.
Predictions of global ruination are rippling around the globe with seismic（地震的） force, all loosely based on a 5,000-year Maya calendar that ends Dec. 21, 2012. Countless Web sites and blogs anticipate(预料) the end of days, as do various New Age groups and would-be prophets(预言者) offering guidance and how-to tips. On Amazon.com , you can read hundreds of book titles combining the year 2012 with terms such as “apocalypse,” “catastrophe” and “end of the world.”
As always, doomsday sells — and a lot of people are buying it.
“There's the psychobabble(心理呓语) aspect,” said Robert Epstein, former editor of Psychology Today magazine and a lecturer at the University of California San Diego. “It's the Sigmund Freud/death wish idea: People glom onto（对…感兴趣） doomsday predictions because there's some small part of them that wants to die, and die spectacularly（壮观的）. I don't believe it, but it's one way to look at this.”
It's Emmerich's way. The German director specializes in wreaking havoc on an epic scale, from climatic cataclysm in 2004's “The Day After Tomorrow” to angry aliens and reptiles in “Independence Day” and “Godzilla.” In “2012,” he finishes the job.
The digitized disasters of “2012” are oversized, overwrought and sometimes literally over the top, as when a humongous tsunami washes over the Himalayan mountains, whose average height exceeds 20,000 feet. Meanwhile in Los Angeles, a 10.5-magnitude earthquake — a temblor at least 30 times more powerful than any real quake ever recorded — yanks the city apart like a giant zipper, sending chunks sliding into the Pacific Ocean.
That's not physically possible, of course. Nor is a 10.5-magnitude quake, said Thomas Rockwell, a geologist at San Diego State University. To generate that much energy, “you'd need a rupture that extends all around the planet.”
All of that other stuff “is pure Hollywood bunk,” said Bernard Jackson at the UCSD Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences.
Entertaining, though, unless you happen to believe the Maya really predicted the end of the world. They didn't, said Geoff Braswell, a UCSD anthropologist. The long-count calendar doesn't signal the end of anything except the end of that particular calendar. “It's just like a car odometer. Unfortunately, hardly anybody reads ancient Mayan. Modern media hype（骗局）, on the other hand, is almost inescapable.
Nicholas Christenfeld, a professor of psychology at UCSD, suggests a more elemental human need. Being swallowed by the Earth or incinerated in a giant fireball “fits neatly with the idea that people want to believe there's a plan, that existence isn't random and pointless,” Christenfeld said.
“We all missed creation, but if we can bear witness at the other end, be part of some grand cosmic destruction, that gives life meaning,” he said.
It helps, too, not to think very hard about the facts, said Lou Manza, a professor of psychology at Lebanon Valley College in Annville, Pa. “These claims have been around forever, and they have all been false, 100 percent wrong,” Manza said.
Of course, prognosticators（预言者, 占卜者） usually have an explanation for that, Christenfeld said.
“They might say it was a misinterpretation,” he said. “They got the date wrong. They might claim humanity acted in time to prevent the destruction. Or faith came to the rescue because people believed something bad was going to happen, it didn't have to happen.”
The girl looking for the job turned out to be excellent but she ended up giving her employer a headache when it also turned out that she used an unreal diploma(文凭).
In December, a Civil Administration Bureau in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, announced that it needed five new staff members. Some 120 people applied and took the exam. Applicants were required to show proof of a college degree at least.
Mei Jing beat everyone in the test and the interview. When a follow-up check was done, however, her education certificate(证书) was discovered to be an unreal one.
This was a bit of an embarrassment for the employers. A dilemma, one might say. If she were hired because of her excellent performance, she still wouldn't have the qualifications on paper. But, if she were dropped because she didn't meet the education requirements, they would lose a good worker. Tough problem!
While Mei's future hangs in the balance, the public having learned of the case got involved. Some people said the Bureau should employ her, since results are the only important thing. “After all, ability is more important than a diploma, ”said one office worker.
Others, however, have attacked Mei's dishonesty. They said that morality was, after all, more important than talent, especially in the case of a government position. Mei wasn't honest, so she shouldn't be hired.
But, Shen Ronghua, the head of the Shanghai Public Administration and Human Resources Institute, tries to be a bit more philosophical.
“There is still a sort of 'diploma means this' prejudice among people,” Shen explains, “Many employers regard a diploma as the only sign of ability and talent.”
So, with this in mind, people may pay little attention to whether someone has real ability or not. They turn to chasing a diploma instead. The unreal diploma is the natural product of this thought.
The conclusion? "China needs a new human resource system. The new system will not define a person only by his or her diploma, " Shen says.
【小题1】What's the meaning of the underlined word “dilemma” in Paragraph Four?
| A．A problem easy to deal with or solve. |
| B．A situation in which it is difficult for you to make the decision. |
| C．A difference in two or more statements, ideas, or stories. |
| D．Something said or done that is funny. |
| A．The Civil Administration Bureau of Wuhan employed the girl. |
| B．The girl was not employed because of dishonesty. |
| C．It remained to be seen whether the girl was to be employed or not. |
| D．Another Human Resource Institute employed the girl. |
| A．A diploma can tell whether a person is honest or not. |
| B．A diploma is the only sign of ability and talent. |
| C．A diploma is what you get after you finish a course. |
| D．A diploma means a job. |
| A．A Girl's Unlucky Experience. | B．Unreal Diploma. |
| C．Dishonesty Has Been Attacked. | D．Can A Diploma Be All There Is. |
My father is a smart man. He spent many years of his life listening to people’s arguments, first as assistant district lawyer and then as a judge. My dad knows rubbish rhetoric when he hears it.
One of his favorite phrases is: “If you don’t have anything smart to say, then don’t say it at all.” Yet, for all of his legal training and life experience, he can’t help but keep talking about the Mega Millions jackpot.
We all know the odds(几率)of winning the jackpot this evening with one ticket are extraordinarily low ... 1 in 175, 711, 536, to be exact. Still, people go out and buy hundreds of tickets with the hopes of becoming wealthier beyond their dreams. Why? There are two possible explanations for this “irrationality”(不理智).
One idea is that the way we calculate odds in our heads has nothing to do with mathematical odds in the traditional sense. We don’t go to the mathematical odds table and say, “Well, this would be a terrible investment. I think I’m better off putting my money in the bank!” Rather, it has everything with the ability to picture an event happening.
My father, for instance, watches the news every night and sees people winning the lottery(彩票). Therefore, he thinks the chance of him winning the lottery is much higher than they actually are.
The second thought is that the expected effect of playing cannot be represented merely by the odds. My father and, I’m sure, others get a thrill from the mere idea of winning. He loves imagining what it would be like to actually win and losing doesn’t really affect him. Sure, he’s disappointed, but it’s “better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.” When you combine the utility of thinking you can win with the utility of actually winning (no matter how small the chance of that occurring), it’s worth it for many people to spend the one dollar on a ticket.
My analysis is that both factors are at play in taking a chance on the lottery. My father and others really do underestimate the odds of winning, but the thrill of participation is not denied by a realistic assessment of the odds. Still, I would probably put my finger on the scale for the first explanation.
All told, a review of the odds of other events happening confirms that there just aren’t many events that occur with less frequency than your winning the Mega Millions jackpot. Look at the graph below, you may understand some:
In many ways, it’s like the lottery, something that features often on television and about which people fantasize, but that rarely happens.
So, when you watch, along with my Pa, to see if your lucky number is drawn this evening, keep in mind three things: that your number almost certainly won’t come up; that you are still going to have fun; and that, finally, a lot of other things are more likely to happen—but getting eaten by a shark isn’t one of them.
【小题1】It can be learned from the article that ________.
| A．the Mega Millions jackpot is the last lottery to win in the world |
| B．a judge in that country can’t talk about lottery because it is illegal |
| C．the writer doesn’t buy lottery, for he never hopes to become rich |
| D．In spite of little possibility, a lot of people spend money on lottery |
| A．show chances that those things take place are fewer |
| B．support the writer’s arguments on the lottery tickets |
| C．indicate no one can win the Mega Millions jackpot |
| D．say shark attack death will seldom happen this year |
| A．If one has mathematical odds, he can win the prize more easily. |
| B．Only those who have irrationality buy hundreds of lottery tickets. |
| C．The Mega Millions jackpot is very popular in the writer’s country. |
| D．Winning lottery is a shortcut to achieve the dream of being rich. |
| A．effective | B．ridiculous | C．contradictory | D．astonishing |
| A．The Popular Mega Millions Jackpot | B．Lottery is Merely a Trick |
| C．Mega Million is Like a Shark Attack | D．Be rich, Buy Lottery Soon |
We hear with our ears, right? Yes, but scientists have known for years that we also hear with our eyes. In a study published in 1976, researchers found that people combined both auditory cues(听力提示) and visual ones，like mouth and face movements, when they heard speech.
A new study that looks at a different set of sensory cues adds to a growing body of evidence that suggests such combination is natural. In a paper, Bryan Gick and Donald Derrick report that people can hear with their skin.
The researchers had volunteers listen to spoken syllables. Meanwhile, they connected the volunteers to a device that would blow a tiny puff (气流) of air onto the skin of their hands or necks. The syllables included “ba” and “pa”, which produce brief puffs from the mouth when spoken, and “da” and “ta,” which do not produce puffs. They found that when listeners heard “da” or “ta” while a puff of air was blown onto their skin, they considered the sounds as “ba” or “pa”.
Dr. Gick said the findings were similar to those from the 1976 study, in which visual cues defeated auditory ones — volunteers listened to one syllable but thought it another because they were watching a video of mouth movements corresponding to the second syllable. In his study，he said，cues from sensory receivers on the skin defeated the ears as well. “Our skin is doing the hearing for us,” he said.
Dr. Gick noted that it would normally be rare that someone actually sensed a puff of air produced by another, although people might occasionally sense their own puffs. “What’s so persuasive about this particular effect,” he added. “is that people are picking up on this information that they don’t know they are using.” That supports the idea that combining different sensory cues is natural.
Dr. Gick said the finding also suggested that other sensory cues might be at work in speech perception(知觉) — that, as he put it, “we are these fantastic perception machines that take in all the information available to us and combine it faultlessly.”
“Da” or “ta” were considered as “ba” or “pa” when __________.
A. they were spoken quickly
B. puffs of air were blown onto the listener’s skin
C. they were pronounced using a special device
D. they were made with face movements
Which of the following statements is TRUE?
A. Humans combine different sensory cues through experience.
B. Dr. Gick’s new study is more important than the one in 1976.
C. People sometimes can sense their own puffs when speaking
D. Only auditory and visual cues are at work in speech perception.
What is the best title of the text?
A. We Can Hear with Our Skin
B. Our Visual Cues Is Doing the Hearing for Us
C. Facial Expressions Are Important
D. We Are Fantastic Machines
We hear with our ears, right? Yes, but scientists have known for years that we also hear with our eyes. In a study published in 1976, researchers found that people combined both auditory cues(听力提示) and visual ones，like mouth and face movements, when they heard speech.
A new study that looks at a different set of sensory cues adds to a growing body of evidence that suggests such combination is natural. In a paper, Bryan Gick and Donald Derrick report that people can hear with their skin.
The researchers had volunteers listen to spoken syllables. Meanwhile, they connected the volunteers to a device that would blow a tiny puff (气流) of air onto the skin of their hands or necks. The syllables included “ba” and “pa”, which produce brief puffs from the mouth when spoken, and “da” and “ta,” which do not produce puffs. They found that when listeners heard “da” or “ta” while a puff of air was blown onto their skin, they considered the sounds as “ba” or “pa”.
Dr. Gick said the findings were similar to those from the 1976 study, in which visual cues defeated auditory ones — volunteers listened to one syllable but thought it another because they were watching a video of mouth movements corresponding to the second syllable. In his study，he said，cues from sensory receivers on the skin defeated the ears as well. “Our skin is doing the hearing for us,” he said.
Dr. Gick noted that it would normally be rare that someone actually sensed a puff of air produced by another, although people might occasionally sense their own puffs. “What’s so persuasive about this particular effect,” he added. “is that people are picking up on this information that they don’t know they are using.” That supports the idea that combining different sensory cues is natural.
Dr. Gick said the finding also suggested that other sensory cues might be at work in speech perception(知觉) — that, as he put it, “we are these fantastic perception machines that take in all the information available to us and combine it faultlessly.”
1.“Da” or “ta” were considered as “ba” or “pa” when __________.
A. they were spoken quickly
B. puffs of air were blown onto the listener’s skin
C. they were pronounced using a special device
D. they were made with face movements
2.Which of the following statements is TRUE?
A. Humans combine different sensory cues through experience.
B. Dr. Gick’s new study is more important than the one in 1976.
C. People sometimes can sense their own puffs when speaking
D. Only auditory and visual cues are at work in speech perception.
3.What is the best title of the text?
A. We Can Hear with Our Skin
B. Our Visual Cues Is Doing the Hearing for Us
C. Facial Expressions Are Important
D. We Are Fantastic Machines
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